[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 27 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N15W 7N30W 3N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE
AXIS 27W-33W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 21W-24W.2

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS CENTERED NEAR
28N88W.  FAIR WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS N OF 23N...WHILE MOIST SW FLOW FROM THE E
PACIFIC IS PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS S OF 23N ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SPREADING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE
SE CORNER OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRES
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF TODAY...THEN MOVE E ACROSS FLORIDA
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. SLY RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT
CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY WED.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. EASTERLY
TRADEWINDS CONTINUES TO BRING SHALLOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW ONE OF
THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING WEST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
BASIN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 65W.  UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS
ADVECTING ABUNDANT E PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
INTO DE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN E OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 80W-83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N60W AND CONTINUES SW TO
23N-70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 29N. TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ADVECTION OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARM OCEAN ARE FOUND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. VERY DRY AIR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
OBSERVED OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N41W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W . BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-65W.  LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 5N BETWEEN 20W-45W.  THE EAST OF THE RIDGE...THERE
IS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 31N-28W EXTENDS LIES
ALONG 39-40W. A CUT-OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH
NEAR 25N-36W LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 3N-18N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 38W.

$$
GR




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