[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N20W 3N40W 1N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 18W-22W...FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 24W-28W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N91W.  FAIR WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 23N...WHILE...MOIST SW FLOW FROM
THE E PACIFIC IS PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS S OF 23N
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO THE E GULF
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS
E CUBA TO NEAR JAMAICA ALONG 21N75W 18N79W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  A WEAK
1010 MB LOW IS OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N80W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  EASTERLY
TRADES REMAIN OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WHERE PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ESPECIALLY .
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 65W.  UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS ADVECTING
CONSIDERABLE E PACIFIC MOISTURE TO THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W
PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
TO HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 75W-88W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA AT
32N65W TO E CUBA NEAR 18N79W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS 90 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N.  A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N43W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
70W AND N OF 28N.  LARGE RIDGE IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N
OF 10N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-50W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC FROM 2N-20N BETWEEN 10W-30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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