[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261650
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N25W 4N35W 3N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-35W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SHEARING THE CLOUDS AND SOME OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIR WEATHER CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO
THANKS TO TWO 1023 MB SURFACE HIGHS. ONE SURFACE HIGH IS SOUTH
OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W AND THE OTHER IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N95W. GFS AND NOGAPS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW. FAIR
WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW CAN BE FOUND
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF YESTERDAY HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY
UPPER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CAN BE FOUND
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED LAND
AREAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 31N71W 21N77W 14N82W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE
FRONT. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE EAST PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS..AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 15N61W PRODUCING DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE EAST OF 65W. WEST OF 65W THE RETURN FLOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS CAUSING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THIS UPPER HIGH HAS
BEEN FAIRLY STRONG AND STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
IT IS LIKELY TO BEGIN MOVING TO THE EAST AND WEAKENING AS A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH IMPINGES ON IT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG 989 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N70W 22N76W AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 33N44W IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS HIGH TO DRIFT
TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT
IS DRAPED FROM A 1004 MB LOW NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 40N12W
ALONG 27N16W 19N31W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED
FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 30W-33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONG
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO BEYOND 32N WEST
OF 40W. A TROUGH LIES ALONG 38-39W WITH THE BASE NEAR
6N39W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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