[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N25W 5N35W 4N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
14W-18W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 23N96W. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE GULF. COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THAT IS OVER WESTERN CUBA IS
SPREADING SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE GULF E OF 90 W...
INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. SW WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE
BRINGING SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO S MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AREA
FOUND. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT A
1021 MB HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF IN 24
HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER...WHILE WARMING SLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL COVER THE W GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG 30N76W 24N80W 17N87W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
OVER EASTERN CUBA ALONG 76-77W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.  CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 70W
PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. 15-20 KT
TRADES REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER SE CORNER OF THE AREA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE FROM E CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA
THIS AFTERNOON. NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME
MOISTURE TO N HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BAHAMAS WITH A PLUME OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS N OF 20N
AND W OF 65W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
33N48W PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER.  A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM 22N-24W BETWEEN 30W-33W. A COLD
FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSSES THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND
CONTINUES SW TO 18N-30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SE CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF THE
EQUATOR TO BEYOND 32N WEST OF 40W. A TROUGH LIES ALONG 38-39W
WITH THE BASE NEAR 6N39W.

$$
GR




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