[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260555 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N25W 5N33W 4N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
10W-19W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 21W-278W. ANOTHER AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 33W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS S FLORIDA AND
WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 30N77W 24N81W
18N90W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.
15-25 KT NW WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE W GULF NEAR 22N99W...PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH COVERS THE N GULF N OF 24N
WITH AXIS ALONG THE NE SECTOR OF THE GULF. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. SW WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH ARE BRINGING
SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
A 1020 MB HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF IN
24 HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER...WHILE WARMING SLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL COVER THE W GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND
THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 30N77W 24N81W
18N90W. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS NE FROM
THE CARIBBEAN TO W JAMAICA AND E CUBA ALONG 16N-80W 18N-78W
21N-77W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E
PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W PRODUCING BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS. 15-20 KT TRADES REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NE VENEZUELA NEAR
10N63W WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE FROM E
CUBA TO HONDURAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS EARLY TUE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OVER THE BAHAMAS WITH A PLUME OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS N OF 20N AND W OF 65W. A 1029 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N50W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CROSSES THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS AND CONTINUES SW TO 21.5N-30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
STRONG ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NE VENEZUELA IS
PRODUCING BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO BEYOND
32N WEST OF 35W.  A TROUGH COVERS THE EAST ATLANTIC NORTH OF 7N
AND EAST OF 45W. A TROUGH LIES ALONG 38-39W WITH THE BASE NEAR
6N39W.

$$
GR



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net