[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251705
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N22W 5N31W 4N40W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM TO THE NORTH AND
150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-42W.  ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS FROM 17W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SE AND NOW EXTENDS
FROM A 1001 MB LOW OVER GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO NE FLORIDA TO JUST
SOUTH OF TAMPA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
23N87W 19N93W. BROKEN MULTILAYER CLOUDS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM A 1023 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.  THERE IS FAIR WEATHER
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER MEXICO SLIDES TO THE
EAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S AND THE CENTRAL GULF.  THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO STRETCHES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 17N86W. BROKEN CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA AND CENTRAL
CUBA. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO HAVE 20-25
KT EASTERLY TRADES WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO RICO...N OF THE
ABC ISLANDS...AND OVER NE VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED EAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
20N62W. THIS UPPER HIGH IS PRODUCING DRY AIR FAIR WEATHER AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE EAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER HIGH HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SUPPLYING FAIR
WEATHER TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH
THE MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WEST OF 70W.
MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NE OVER
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER FLORIDA. IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 32N46W. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EAST ATLANTIC TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N15W 25N28W 22N44W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THERE ARE LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 21-29N BETWEEN 20W-38W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONG UPPER HIGH EAST OF PUERTO RICO IS
PRODUCING BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO BEYOND
32N WEST OF 35W.  A TROUGH COVERS THE EAST ATLANTIC NORTH OF 7N
AND EAST OF 35W. THE TROUGH AXIS TILTS SW FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 30N15W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N23W
AND CONTINUES TO A BASE NEAR 7N38W.  THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
HAS ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N E OF 35W
SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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