[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260028
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 25 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N22W 5N31W 4N40W 1N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
19W-23W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO S FLORIDA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 30N79W 23N84W 19N91W.  NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.  15-25 KT NW WINDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR
22N97W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH COVERS THE N GULF N OF
24N WITH AXIS ALONG 93W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA.  SW
FLOW REMAINS S OF 24N.  CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N.  EXPECT A 1020 MB HIGH TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN 24 HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG
23N80W 14N82W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER W CUBA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 79W-82W.  15-20 KT TRADES
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER N
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W WITH AXIS ALONG 65W.  S TO SW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED FROM THE E PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN
W OF 70W PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.  EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO BE OVER JAMAICA AND E CUBA IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.  UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS WITH A PLUME
OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS N OF 20N AND W OF 65W.  A 1028
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N45W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N14W
28N20W 21N35W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONG ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA IS PRODUCING BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO BEYOND 32N WEST OF 35W.  A TROUGH COVERS
THE EAST ATLANTIC NORTH OF 7N AND EAST OF 35W. THE TROUGH AXIS
TILTS SW FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N15W TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 16N23W AND CONTINUES TO A BASE NEAR 7N38W.  THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N
E OF 35W SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA




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