[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 25 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N19W 6N30W 3N40W 1N50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO ALONG 28N90W 23.5N94.5 MOVING SE. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN MORNING.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 60 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N. A
SQUALL LINE IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 25N89W TO 30N83W. 15-20
KT NW WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. 15-20 KT S WINDS REMAIN E OF
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S AND THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH
WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE ISLAND. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 79W-82W.  THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO HAVE 20-25 KT EASTERLY TRADES
WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO RICO...N OF THE ABC ISLANDS...AND OVER NE
VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER TRINIDAD NEAR 9N61W...NEARLY STATIONARY. SW FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 35N54W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E
ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N21W 25N32W 24N45W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTM FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
41W-48W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER
TRINIDAD IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF THE EQUATOR TO
BEYOND 32N W OF 40W.  A TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 7N AND
E OF 40W.  THE TROUGH AXIS TILTS SW FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
30N14W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W AND CONTINUES TO A
BASE NEAR 7N40W.  THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N E OF 40W SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

$$
GR



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