[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 4N30W 1N50W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 35W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 29N91W 24N98W MOVING E.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS 60 NM E OF FRONT N OF 27N.  15-20 KT NW
WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.  15-20 KT S WINDS REMAIN E OF FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS.. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO...HOWEVER...A SHARP TROUGH IS OVER NE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA MOVING SE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO W CUBA WITH
SOME BRIEF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 17N86W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA
NEAR 22N82W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO HAVE 20-25 KT EASTERLY TRADES WITH
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
OVER PUERTO RICO...N OF THE ABC ISLANDS...AND OVER NE
VENEZUELA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS.. A STRONG ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER TRINIDAD NEAR 9N61W...NEARLY
STATIONARY.  SW FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA.  A BAND OF BROKEN
HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 73W-85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED EAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 31N78W
DRIFTING E AND WEAKENING.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE THE E
ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N23W 28N30W 25N40W
25N50W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER TRINIDAD
IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF THE EQUATOR TO BEYOND 32N W
OF 40W.  A TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 7N AND E OF 40W.
THE TROUGH AXIS TILTS SW FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N14W TO
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W AND CONTINUES TO A BASE NEAR
7N40W.  THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N E OF 40W SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA


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