[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241722 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 7N23W 3N37W 2N44W 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN
COAST TO 12N21W ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 5N25W. THIS TROUGH IS
ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THE ITCZ AND WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW ENTERED THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
GULF FROM WESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. THERE ARE
BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS 60 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. APPROXIMATELY 250-300 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT THERE
IS A WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 70 NM SOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTLINE NEAR 29N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 27N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AND ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS..
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF
TRANSPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND FLORIDA.


THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO 16N84W. BROKEN
MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS.. A STRONG UPPER
HIGH DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF 73W.
WEST OF 73W A MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW IS ENHANCING
BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF HAITI JAMAICA AND
CUBA.


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED EAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N79W.
THIS RIDGE IS DRIFTING TO THE EAST AND WEAKENING. A WEAK 1018 MB
LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N59W. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE LOW TO 27N52W. A MUCH STRONGER 1001 MB LOW IS LOCATED
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 39N25W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
1001 MB LOW TO 29N31W FLATTENING TO 27N42W AND TO THE 1018 MB
LOW.  BROKEN CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CAUSING FAIR
WEATHER AND DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FROM
35W-65W SOUTH OF 25N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLANTIC
NORTH OF 4N AND EAST OF 35W.  SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WINDS AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH ARE HELPING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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