[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231702
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N29W 2N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN 170 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-30W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SHEARING THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHEAST.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA NEAR
31N84W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE
GULF AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH
OVER FLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS HIGH TO SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TOMORROW. A WEAK
TROUGH IS ALONG 89-90W SOUTH OF 26N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW COVERS THE GULF TRANSPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EAST
PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 24N. NORTH OF
24N DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
ON SATURDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 65W...
A WEAK 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N83W. A STUBBORN STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE LOW TO EASTERN CUBA AND HONDURAS ALONG 22N74W
17N81W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE 300 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT BUT IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.  MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN SKIES. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 21N54W IS DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR EXISTS EAST OF 68W. WEST OF 68W THERE
ARE BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RETURN MOIST FLOW OF THE MID-UPPER HIGH AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE MOST ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS NEAR HISPANIOLA
AND SOUTH OF CUBA. THIS MID-UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 65W...
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N45W. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
DOMINATING MID-UPPER HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 21N54W IS
CAUSING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FROM 20W-65W SOUTH OF 26N. IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC E OF 28W NORTH OF THE ITCZ THERE ARE BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 350 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 10N27W TO 20N10W ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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