[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N30W 1N50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 23W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA NEAR
31N84W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WARMING SE SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA IS STILL GETTING A COOL NORTHERLY WIND...HOWEVER.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVER THE ENTIRE GULF.  A
BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N AND W OF
85W MOVING E.  EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE
INTO THE W ATLANTIC...AND A NEW SURFACE TROUGH TO DIP INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF N OF 27N WITH AXIS ALONG 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 65W...
A WEAK 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
27N71W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO EASTERN
CUBA AND HONDURAS ALONG 20N78W 16N84W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 180 NM BEHIND THE
FRONT.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF HONDURAS FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE W
ATLANTIC LOW TO BEYOND 29N65W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 180 NM BEHIND THIS FRONT. THIS
ENTIRE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AND WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN SKIES AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N63W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-80W.  A
SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION FROM COSTA RICA TO
HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 25N65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 65W...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W 28N45W
27N54W.  A WARM FRONT CONTINUES W TO 29N60W 29N65W.  A 1022 MB
HIGH IS S OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 24N47W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF THE EQUATOR W OF 40W.  A
TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 7N AND E OF 40W.  THE TROUGH
AXIS TILTS SW FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N14W TO THE CAPE
VERDE ISLAND NEAR 16N25W TO A BASE NEAR 7N40W.  THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC HAS ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N E OF 40W
SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA


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