[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N19W 4N30W 2N40W 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 170 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 17W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-8N
BETWEEN 13W-170W AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 32-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE STATE OF GEORGIA
NEAR 32N84W PRODUCING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N. THIS HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO N FLORIDA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING NW PART OF THE
GULF TONIGHT. A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF
BY SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG 91-92W SOUTH OF 24N. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE N GULF N OF 24N
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE SE GULF S OF 24N AND E OF 90W HAS SW
FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 65W...
1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N73W.  A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO EASTERN CUBA AND HONDURAS ALONG
22N74W 17N81W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 300 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST 24 HOURS MORE. MODERATE TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PATCH OF MOISTURE IS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A MID/UPPER HIGH LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS RIDGE PATTERN IS ALSO PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE/DRY
UPPER AIR OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN
VENEZUELA. THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
DURING THE WEEKEND. SURFACE NE WINDS WILL BRING PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER HONDURAS AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 65W...
A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
25N46W.  THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE WEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND BROAD ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN
25W-60W. A 1014 MB LOW IS NE OF MADEIRA ISLAND NEAR 35N13W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N
AND W OF 40W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 55W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF 8N AND E OF 40W. SW UPPER WINDS OF AROUND
75 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
BETWEEN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N AND E OF
50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE SEEN
IN THIS AREA RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

$$
GR




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