[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 23 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0615 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N19W 4.5N30W 2N40W 1N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 12W-20W AND FROM EQ-2N
BETWEEN 34-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SE U.S. NEAR 32N85W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF
26N. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND FLORIDA. THIS HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO N FLORIDA ON FRIDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING NW PART OF THE GULF FRI
NIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE N
GULF N OF 24N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE SE GULF S OF 24N AND E
OF 92W HAS SW FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 65W...1013
MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25.5N71W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO EASTERN CUBA AND HONDURAS ALONG 20N78W 15N86W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE 300 NM N OF THE
FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MODERATE TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF
10N.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN E CUBA AND HONDURAS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SURFACE NE WINDS WILL BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS OVER HONDURAS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND
COSTA RICA. THIS RIDGE PATTERN IS ALSO PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE/DRY
UPPER AIR OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 65W...
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
25N47W.  THIS SURFACE HIGH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN 25W-60W.  A 1016 MB LOW IS NE
OF MADEIRA ISLAND NEAR 35N13W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM
THIS LOW TO NEAR 31N12W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE
COVERS THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND W OF 40W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
55W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF
40W. WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICS S OF
10N AND E OF 50W SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

$$
GR





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net