[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N20W 4N30W 1N40W 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N90W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF
26N.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS
THE N GULF N OF 24N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  THE SE GULF S OF
24N AND E OF 92W HAS SW FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD.  EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO N
FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS.  MOST OF THE GULF WILL THEN HAVE WARM SE
RETURN FLOW WITH LIGHT WIND VELOCITIES.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 65W...
1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N70W.  A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL CUBA AND HONDURAS ALONG 20N80W
15N86W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE 300 NM N OF
THE FRONT.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING
SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF 10N.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
180 NM OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN E CUBA AND HONDURAS
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 65W...
A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
26N41W.  THIS SURFACE HIGH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW BETWEEN 25W-65W.  A 1016 MB LOW IS OFF
THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 32N12W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S
FROM THIS LOW TO S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 23N19W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND W
OF 40W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 55W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 40W.  WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
NOTED OVER THE TROPICS S OF 10N AND E OF 50W SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA


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