[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU DEC 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N20W 4N30W 1N40W 1N48W EQ52W.
THERE ARE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM EQ-8N BETWEEN 26W-37W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SHEARING MANY OF THE SHOWERS
TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 41W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MS/AL SUPPLYING MOST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER
FLORIDA. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS TO MOVE TO THE SE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE
A WARM-UP IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AS THE WIND FLOW
SHIFTS TO SOUTHERLY ON THE RETURN SIDE OF THE HIGH BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A WEAK
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF IS ALIGNED FROM 25N90W SOUTHWESTWARD
TO 22N92W. WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THERE ARE
BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE
DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF MOSTLY SOUTH OF
25N. NORTH OF 25N DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 70W...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND
HAS NOW BECOME STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN. A DISSIPATING 1014 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA NEAR 29N71W.
THE STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THIS LOW TO EASTERN CUBA
TO 15N84W. BROKEN SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS IS WEST OF 75W. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N55W. THIS UPPER HIGH IS SUPPLYING FAIR
WEATHER AND DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE
CARIBBEAN EAST OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ENHANCED BY THE
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF CUBA.
THIS UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING
SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS WELL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 70W...
A 1023MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N41W. THIS SURFACE HIGH
AND THE UPPER HIGH NEAR 22N55W ARE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH VERY DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 20W-70W SOUTH OF 26N.
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK 1014 MB LOW REMAINS SSW OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 27N18W AND IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
FROM 26N-29N E OF 16W INTO MOROCCO. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY FAIR WEATHER.

$$
JC/MT


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