[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N5W 3N17W 4N30W 1N40W 1N48W EQ53W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM EQ-8N
BETWEEN 24W-37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 41W-49W AND EXTENDING FROM THE AMAZON DELTA NW TO
FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LAST
NIGHT HAS EASED SEWD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HAS ALLOWED HIGH
PRES TO BUILD FARTHER S ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR VICKSBURG MISSISSIPPI AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD
TO SRN GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS BUT FOR THE TIME BEING IT IS
PROPELLING COOLER AIR SWD OVER THE AREA. THE WEAK LOW WHICH
DEVELOPED OFF THE TEXAS COAST YESTERDAY HAS DEGENERATED INTO A
TROUGH AND HAS BEEN PUSHED SWD IN THE NLY FLOW...NOW LOCATED
ALONG 19N91W 25N94W. MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALSO PUSHED S
WITH THIS FEATURE AS EXPECTED...AND NOW PRIMARILY STRETCH FROM
THE CNTRL GULF TO THE MEXICAN COAST S OF TAMPICO. THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY A TROUGH WHICH IS BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM
THE MAIN LONGWAVE PATTERN...CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM THE ERN
CAROLINAS SW TO THE WRN GULF. UPPER MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING SE OF A LINE FROM
VERACRUZ NEWD ACROSS S FLORIDA...AND SUBSIDENCE IS INCREASING
OVER THE NRN GULF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE OF LOUISIANA. A
QUICK WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE LATE THU INTO FRI AS RETURN SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE W GULF...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

CARIBBEAN...
A COLD FRONT HAS EASED SEWD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE
PAST 24 HRS AND IS NOW STATIONARY FROM E CUBA SW TO NE
HONDURAS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS
EXTEND ALONG AND UP TO 270 NM NW OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE ENTIRE WRN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS HAS INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE AREA W OF 73W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS STILL IN CONTROL E OF THERE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING NE INTO THE CNTRL
ATLC. ISOLATED TRADE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OF THE E CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS SKIRTING ACROSS TRINIDAD...
TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.

ATLANTIC...
A 1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED NE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND NEAR 28N72W
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS CROOKED ISLAND TO E
CUBA. IN ADDITION...A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES E OF THE LOW TO
ANOTHER 1016 MB LOW NEAR 30N60W CONTINUING AS A WARM FRONT TO
31N56W 29N49W AND A COLD FRONT TO 29N44W BEYOND 32N37W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE
NRN BAHAMAS BUT THE OVERRIDING FEATURE IS THE ABUNDANCE OF HIGH
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO 30N37W AND IS
PUSHING DRY AIR ALOFT TO 28N OVER THE CNTRL ATLC...WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FARTHER S INTO THE TROPICS. THIS SAME AREA
IS COVERED BY MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES WITH A 1022 MB HIGH
ANCHORED NEAR 27N42W. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF
THE AREA NEAR 35N15W WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING S ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO WRN SAHARA. THIS TROUGH IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT
DETACHED FROM ITS SW EXTENSION...WHICH LIES ALONG 24N26W 10N40W
INTO THE DEEP TROPICS. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW REMAINS SSW OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N18W AND IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 26N-29N E OF 16W INTO MOROCCO.

$$
BERG



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