[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 22 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 8N22W 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS UP TO 330 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
11W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE
AMAZON DELTA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LAST
NIGHT HAS EASED SEWD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HAS ALLOWED HIGH
PRES TO BUILD FARTHER S ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR VICKSBURG MISSISSIPPI AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD
TO GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS BUT FOR THE TIME BEING IT IS
PROPELLING COOLER AIR SWD OVER THE AREA. A WEAK 1021 MB LOW
WHICH DEVELOPED OFF THE TEXAS COAST LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN PUSHED
SWD IN THIS FLOW AND IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 25N94W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
ALSO PUSHED S WITH THIS FEATURE AS EXPECTED...AND NOW PRIMARILY
STRETCH FROM THE CNTRL GULF TO THE MEXICAN COAST S OF TAMPICO.
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS
SHIFTED SLOWLY EWD ALONG A LINE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE EXTREME
NW GULF. THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF
THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR MEXICO CITY NEWD PAST LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...AND SUBSIDENCE IS INCREASING OVER THE
NRN GULF AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE OF LOUISIANA. A QUICK
WARM-UP WILL COMMENCE LATE THU INTO FRI AS RETURN SLY FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE W GULF...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

CARIBBEAN...
A COLD FRONT HAS EASED SEWD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE
DAY AND NOW EXTENDS FROM CNTRL CUBA SW TO NE HONDURAS. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS EXTEND UP TO 225 NM NW
OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE THE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE ENTIRE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROUGH HAS MOVED
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS HAS INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF
HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE AREA W OF 76W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS STILL IN CONTROL E OF THERE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA AND A RIDGE EXTENDING NE INTO THE CNTRL
ATLC. ISOLATED TRADE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS
S OF GUADELOUPE.

ATLANTIC...
A 1015 MB LOW IS LOCATED NE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND NEAR 29N74W
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS CAT AND GREAT EXUMA
ISLANDS TO CNTRL CUBA. IN ADDITION...A WARM FRONT STRETCHES E OF
THE LOW TO 30N65W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 30N50W AND
A COLD FRONT BEYOND 32N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE WITHIN
150 NM OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS BUT THE OVERRIDING
FEATURE IS THE ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NE TO 30N40W AND IS PUSHING DRY AIR ALOFT TO 30N OVER
THE CNTRL ATLC...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FARTHER S INTO THE
TROPICS. THIS SAME AREA IS COVERED BY MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES
WITH A 1023 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 27N38W. FARTHER E...AN UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N15W WITH A TROUGH
STRETCHING S ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N16W. THIS TROUGH IS
BECOMING SOMEWHAT DETACHED FROM ITS SW EXTENSION...WHICH LIES
ALONG 22N28W 10N46W INTO THE DEEP TROPICS. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW
REMAINS SSW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N18W AND IS PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 14W-18W.

$$
BERG


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