[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 21 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N14W 7N25W 4N35W 3N44W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
140 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 13W-38W. SCATTERED
WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTH
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ...A 1031 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS FROM TEXAS TO GEORGIA AND NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND THE GULF NORTH OF 28N. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
ARE SEEN OVER MEXICO EAST OF 100W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
TRANSPORTED INTO THE GULF AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 25N-94.5W. E .
AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 20N-95W. THIS
FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE ON THURSDAY. BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW/TROUGH. AT
UPPER LEVEL...WSW WINDS ARE ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N AND ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N65W TO WEAK 1016 MB
LOW NEAR 28.5N74W. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE
NW BAHAMAS...WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A NARROW LINE
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS DEFINES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE CARIBBEAN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 500 MB HIGH LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS
A RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS HIGH IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER EAST OF 75W. DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR IS EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THIS REGION. WEST OF 75W...BROKEN CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STREAMING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD ON THE RETURN
SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES
CENTRAL CUBA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS DEFINES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MODERATE TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT COVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN. A PATCH OF MOISTURE COVERS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MUNICIPALITIES AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL AS OVER THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N40W. THIS FEATURE AND
THE HIGH AT MID LEVELS ARE SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER AND DRY UPPER
LEVEL AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN BETWEEN 30W-60W. A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-47W AND LIES ALONG 30N FROM
50W-65W.  A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR 32N14W.  IS
MOVING TO THE NE. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LOW. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF MADEIRA ISLAND SW
ALONG 20N-30W TO 12N-40W...THE CONTINUES WEST TO JUST EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER SW WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO HELP THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE COAST OF
AFRICA.

$$
GR


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