[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 4.5N34W 3N45W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM N AND 75 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
NORTHWARD AND COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ALONG AND N OF 30N.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS MEXICO TOWARDS SOUTHERN TEXAS. SW TO WLY
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS BRINGING PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD A LITTLE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC WHILE A NEW TROUGH APPROACHES THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM JUST W
OF BERMUDA SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA THE FRONT HAS LOST MOST OF
ITS UPPER SUPPORT AT THIS TIME AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
BY MID-WEEK ANOTHER ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY GIVE THE
FRONT ENOUGH SOUTHWARD PUSH TO MOVE IT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS W CUBA. THE BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES NORTHWARDS INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ATLC
EXTENDS SW TO NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS NEARLY ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG
SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS COVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND
STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ANOTHER NORTHWARD PUSH AROUND MID-WEEK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE SEEN ALONG THE COAST ALONG SOUTHERN BELIZE...HONDURAS AND
NE NICARAGUA IN THE LOW LEVEL NE-E FLOW.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLC. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
27N52W TO BEYOND 33N45W. ASSOCIATED 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N53W. RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 31N30W. THE LOW IS MOVING SE NEAR 20 KT.
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 23N40W 15N50W TO NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 32N27W. COLD FRONT PRECEDES THE LOW AND EXTENDS THROUGH
32N20W TO NEAR 23N27W. CONFLUENT FLOW NEAR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 20N W OF 48W. A
STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 110-140 KT IS LOCATED SE OF
THE TROUGH ALONG THE LINE 16N40W 23N32W 29N20W TO 31N15W.
BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING NEWD
ALONG THE JET. DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
BROWN


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