[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 3N29W 5N40W 2N50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 20W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E U.S. INTO THE W ATLC N OF
25N W OF 70W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
THROUGH 32N71W SW ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH NEAR 26N81W
TO 24N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER S MEXICO AND THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 18N93W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
NW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N ACROSS THE GULF AND N OF 28N W OF 74W
IN THE W ATLC. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT
COVERS THE N GULF N OF 26N TO OVER THE U.S. WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 140 KT. THIS IS ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO TO OVER THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE U.S. PUSHING THE FRONT OUT OF THE GULF WITH MAJORITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING THE GULF LATE TODAY AND WEAKENING OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THU. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SW GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA/COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W NW TO W CUBA
NEAR 22N84W COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR DOMINATE ALL BUT THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 21N W OF
83W...WHERE BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE LOCATED STEMMING FROM THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS COVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN AND WILL REMAIN UNTIL NEAR MID WEEK WHEN THE TRADES
WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN AN INCREASE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W NE TO BEYOND
32N56W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA S OF 25N W OF 48W
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR. AT THE SURFACE...
A POCKET OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N-33N BETWEEN
40W-70W WITH A 1023 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 31N52W. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE NE ATLC NEAR
32N31W SW ALONG 23N39W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W INCLUDING THE
E CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 200/250 NM OF
LINE FROM 30N32W 22N48W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
E ATLC FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N21W SW ALONG 25N25W TO
20N32W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS S OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING ALONG 17W
S OF 32N. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 150 KT IS
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 15N45W TO A
PEAK NEAR 30N18W TO OVER AFRICA BEYOND 27N3W. STRONG
DIFFLUENCE...AIDED BY THE JET...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DENSE HIGH CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA NW OF
10N26W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N23W TO AFRICA NEAR
21N16W AND SE 10N50W 25N34W 30N17W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 30N10W
INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE



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