[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N22W 4N33W 6N42W 2N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
5N25W TO 9N33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 33W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
SHALLOW MULTILAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E U.S. INTO THE W ATLC N
OF 23N W OF 73W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
THROUGH A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 32N74W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA N OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE NEAR 27N81W TO 24N89W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY MOVING NW AS A WARM FRONT TO OVER S
MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 17N93W. A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT
IN THE GULF FROM 82W-88W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT
COVERS THE N GULF N OF 25N TO OVER THE U.S. WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 140 KT. THIS IS ADVECTING PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE GULF WITH MAJORITY OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLEARING THE GULF DURING THE DAY MON AND
WEAKENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BY THU. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA NNW TO W CUBA COVERING THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE
ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE ALL BUT
THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 84W...WHERE BROKEN/
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
STEMMING FROM THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG
SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND WILL
REMAIN UNTIL NEAR MID WEEK WHEN THE TRADES WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL MID WEEK
WHEN AN INCREASE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N75W NE TO BEYOND
32N56W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA S OF 26N W OF 50W
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR. AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N59W SW
TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE NE ATLC NEAR
33N32W SW ALONG 24N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA IN THE E CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 450/500 NM NW OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC FROM
A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N23W SW ALONG 26N26W TO 20N35W. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS S OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING ALONG 19W S OF 30N. A
STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 150 KT IS ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 13N48W TO A PEAK NEAR
28N18W TO OVER AFRICA BEYOND 26N3W. STRONG DIFFLUENCE...AIDED BY
THE JET...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DENSE HIGH CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA NW OF 10N26W TO AFRICA NEAR
18N16W AND SE 10N53W 23N37W 29N23W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 30N10W
INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE


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