[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N35W 6N43W 3N51W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
28W-35W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN
36W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES FLORIDA FROM 28N80W TO 27N86W IN THE E
GULF OF MEXICO.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 23N90W 19N93W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 19N-23N
BETWEEN 85W-89W.  20-25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW IS N OF THE FRONTS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE NW PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE IS PRODUCING
SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  BANDS OF EASTERN
PACIFIC MOISTURE ARE ADVECTING HIGH OVERCAST CLOUDS OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND IN 24 HOURS
FROM S FLORIDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE SURFACE TRADEWINDS TRAVERSE THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NOTED S OF
20N.  PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM N COLOMBIA TO BEYOND
CENTRAL CUBA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.  EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TRADEWINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.  ALSO EXPECT RAIN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N77W 28N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1024 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N61W PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER.  A 1006 MB GALE LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
31N29W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM  30N-35N BETWEEN 20W-28W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST
N OF THE ITCZ ALONG 49W FROM 3N-12N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 50W.  A
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  A
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W.  A LARGE BAND OF OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 20W-40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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