[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N11W 4N25W 5N35W 4N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
NORTHWARD AND COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
SOUTH OF 27N. THE FLOW BECOMES MAINLY ZONAL N OF 27N. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NW MEXICO TOWARDS SOUTHERN
TEXAS. SW TO WLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS BRINGING ABUNDANT
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVER THE STATES OF
MEXICO LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD A LITTLE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC WHILE A NEW TROUGH APPROACHES THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM BERMUDA SW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
27N-77W...THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO JUST
N OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ALSO FOUND WEST OF THE FRONT. WITH WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA THE FRONT HAS LOST MOST OF
ITS UPPER SUPPORT AT THIS TIME AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY MID-WEEK ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY GIVE THE FRONT ENOUGH SOUTHWARD PUSH TO MOVE IT
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS W CUBA. THE BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES NORTHWARDS INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS SW
TO NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE SURFACE EASTERLY
TRADEWINDS COVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD REACHING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANOTHER NORTHWARD PUSH AROUND
MID-WEEK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SEEN ALONG THE COAST ALONG
SOUTHERN BELIZE...HONDURAS AND MOST OF NICARAGUA IN THE LOW
LEVEL NE-E FLOW. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE OBSERVED JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND MAY PRODUCE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLC. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
25N51W TO BEYOND 34N37W. ASSOCIATED 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N46W. LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC NEAR 30N28W. THE LOW IS MOVING SE NEAR 20 KT.
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 20N40W 15N47W TO NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 32N28W. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF
110-135 KT IS LOCATED SE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE LINE 13N42W
24N-31W TO 31N14W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
STREAMING NEWD ALONG THE JET...REACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS.
DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
GR


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