[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160502
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N30W 4N40W 3N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE U.S. E COAST INTO THE W
ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE GULF N OF 25N E OF 92W.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W SW ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF ALONG 24N88W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDE THE
FRONT WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 20N88W TO 26N82W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE S OF 23N W OF 90W. JETSTREAM WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS OVER THE N GULF FROM ACROSS TEXAS
NEAR 25N98W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE GULF DURING THE DAY FRI. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF ON SAT/SUN SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW
WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION REMAINS THE NW
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 20N W OF 85W.
MODERATE TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY TODAY THEN WILL BECOME STRONGER FOR THE WEEKEND.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N76W NE TO
BEYOND 32N72W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
IS N OF 17N FROM 43W-65W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W EXTENDING SW TO 21N57W WHERE IT
CONTINUES W AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N43W TO 26N46W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N43W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 25N45W TO 21N46W. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 20N FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N W OF
73W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. NARROW
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N40W N TO BEYOND 32N42W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 24N W OF 40W AND
N OF 24N FROM 50W-60W. ELONGATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NE
ATLC IS N OF 25N E OF 35W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
E/W FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 25N29W S TO 16N27W AND A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDING
NW TO 28N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
24N-30N BETWEEN 16W-24W INCLUDING  SOME OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVEL IN THE TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH AN UPPER JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT
EXTENDS ALONG 16N40W 19N26W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 16N15W. .

$$
WALLACE


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