[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 4N13W 5N36W 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-33W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 2N E OF 4W TO
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE AREA N OF 26N FROM 75W-88W. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N79W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 27N82W INTO THE GULF ALONG 24N87W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. THE N PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS
MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD WHILE THE BOUNDARY S OF 23N IS BECOMING
STATIONARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDE THE FRONT
WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM OVER THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W ACROSS W CUBA TO 24N81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150/200
NM SW OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND FLORIDA KEYS. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 23N. WEAKENING JETSTREAM WITH WINDS
OF LESS THAN 90 KT EXTENDS OVER THE N GULF FROM ACROSS TEXAS
NEAR 27N98W TO FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE GULF LATER TODAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE W GULF ON SAT/SUN SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA CLEARING THE GULF
BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS MORNING
EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W FROM OVER SOUTH AMERICA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION IS GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION REMAINS THE NW SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 21N W OF 81W. MODERATE
TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATER TODAY THEN
WILL BECOME STRONGER FOR THE WEEKEND.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W NE TO
BEYOND 32N70W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
IS N OF 18N FROM 43W-68W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING S TO 28N49W WHERE IT
CONTINUES SW AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N54W THEN W TO PUERTO
RICO NEAR 19N67W. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS UNDERCUTTING THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE E AND EXTENDS FROM 27N46W TO 22N37W WITH A
SURFACE 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N46W. BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 20N FROM THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH TO 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE FRONT. NARROW
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N34W NW TO BEYOND 32N42W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 26N W OF 60W...N
OF 14N FROM 48W-60W...AND FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 33W-48W.
ELONGATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC IS N OF 27N E OF
40W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING W FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N25W S TO
11N29W AND A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE LOW TO 27N28W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-30N E OF 26W TO THE COAST OF
AFRICA INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL IN THE TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH AN
UPPER JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS ALONG 14N45W 19N26W
TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 19N16W.

$$
WALLACE




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