[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 5N24W 4N34W 3N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 37W-39W.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALONG THE
AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW IS SHEARING SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER GEORGIA/ALABAMA
BORDER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SE COAST OF U.S. AS WELL AS ACROSS N FLORIDA. SQUALL LINE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N-83W TO 26N-85W. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WILL CLEAR THE
GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE U.S. WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION CAUSING FAIR WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
MODERATE NORTH WINDS OF 20-25 KT BLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 100-120 KT IS
CROSSING N MEXICO NORTH OF 27N...THE SOUTHERN STATES OF U.S. AND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR COVERS MOST OF AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED OVER PANAMA WHICH ARE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. A BAND OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AND OLD COLD FRONT LIES
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...THEN
CONTINUES NE TO 23N-54W. AT 2300 UTC THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE. A FEW
TSTMS ARE NEAR W CUBA.  WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N BELIZE
ON FRI. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TROUGH
FRIDAY...BECOMING STRONGER DURING THE WEEKEND AS A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS STRENGTHENS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-48W EXTENDING SW TO
23N-54W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION
OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. EAST OF THE FRONT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 24N. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 43W-46W...ASSOCIATED
WITH A 1014MB SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE
FRONT.  COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 20N
W OF 50W TO THE U.S E COAST. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE FAR W ATLC AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
25N30W IS ALSO PRODUCING MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
TO THE NE OF THE LOW. GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THIS LOW FAIRLY
STATIONARY WITH LIMITED STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW.

$$
GR



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