[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N11W 6N28W 7N41W 4N53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 6N FROM
17W-20W AND OF 4.5N FROM 31W-36W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 19W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS OFF THE E U.S. AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC N OF 20N FROM 68W-90W. AT 0900 UTC...
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W TO A 1009
MB LOW E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N75W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 26N86W SW
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO 23N88W WHERE IT CONTINUES
AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 21N92W INTO S MEXICO E OF CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN TO 17N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE COLD FRONT N OF THE LOW. THICK LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE REMAINED BANKED THIS MORNING
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES IN MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE
W GULF S OF 27N W OF 95W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT.
SKIES REMAIN QUITE CLEAR ALONG THE N GULF COAST N OF 25N WITH
SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N
FROM 87W-95W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN. STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 SWEEP ACROSS THE N GULF FROM
OVER TEXAS NEAR 29N94W 27N80W TO BEYOND 32N69W IN THE W ATLC. FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE GULF BY TUE. RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF AND THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE IN WED INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W AND
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
THUS...AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM JUST S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W TO ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 90
NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
BAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD/
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W NW TO ACROSS PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN QUITE DRY WITH MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTING THE NW AREA THROUGH WED AND
THEN THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH NE OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W N TO BEYOND 32N56W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM
49W-68W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 24N71W TO BEYOND 32N64W. A
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BENEATH THIS RIDGING FROM 32N35W
ALONG 25N45W TO 26N53W WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING THIS
BOUNDARY TO 20N BETWEEN 45W-65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-24N BETWEEN
50W-70W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 34N30W AND A 993 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 33N29W. THE
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N FROM 19W-45W. AN OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW N THEN E TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR
32N21W WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING S ALONG 25N19W TO 20N20W THEN
DISSIPATES TO 16N24W IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND THE LOWS IN A BAND WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE
28N32W ALONG 30N27W TO BEYOND 32N26W AND A BROAD AREA OF SIMILAR
ACTIVITY N OF 26N FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23W. DRY AIR/MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 10N-32N BETWEEN 33W-50W KEEPING THE ITCZ
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM.

$$
WALLACE



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