[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 6N28W 7N41W 6N51W. ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 50 MILES ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-34W AND BETWEEN 17W-22W. HOWEVER SOME OF
THESE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND SOME OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS EXTENDING FROM 32N65W TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA USHERING IN COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF AND THE ASSOCIATED LAND AREAS. A WEAK
1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE E TX/SW LA
BORDER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, STRONG WESTERLIES ARE TRANSPORTING SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. THE CIMSS/UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN ANALYSIS AT 12/1500 UTC SHOWS MODERATE/STRONG VALUES OF
-10 TO -20 FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA.
FAIR SKIES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED WEAKENING SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NE OF THE BAHAMAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE NEARLY
STATIONARY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER
AND NEAR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR
9N81W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. THESE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM RIDGING IN THE
E PAC AND IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE, DRY AIR COVERS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE OF THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE. A MID-UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 500 NM ENE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N58W
KEEPING THE BASIN FAIRLY QUIET. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TAKING SOME OF THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IT. RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE BASIN TOMORROW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 993 MB STORM CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 34N31W
MOVING TO THE WEST 10 KT. NEAR THE LOW, THERE ARE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ROTATING AROUND IT, WITH SOME ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 90NM
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND EXTENDING OUT TO 270 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH NE OF PUERTO RICO IS
PRODUCING DRY AIR AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY SOUTH OF 10N ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

$$
JC/MT

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net