[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 12 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N24W 7N38W 4N53W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS
FROM 24W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E U.S. INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND W ATLC N OF 20N FROM 74W-93W. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N71W TO A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 26N86W SW TO A
SECOND 1014 MB LOW N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N91W INTO S
MEXICO E OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO 16N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 23N81W TO BEYOND 32N72W. THICK LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKED AGAIN
TONIGHT ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES IN MEXICO AS A
STATIONARY FRONT IS STUCK IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS. SKIES ARE QUITE CLEAR ALONG THE N GULF COAST N OF
26N WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE S OF 24N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET
WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 150 SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF FROM OVER TEXAS NEAR
30N94W 27N85W TO BEYOND 32N73W IN THE W ATLC. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
GULF BY TUE. RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF AND THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE IN WED INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO SWEEP INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR
20N62W AND COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW. THUS...AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM JUST S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
NEAR 13N84W. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD BAND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W NW TO
ACROSS PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS
BEEN QUITE DRY WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE. NO BIG CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTING THE
NW AREA THROUGH WED AND THEN THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRYING OUT
SOMEWHAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC...
HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH NE OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 20N62W N TO BEYOND 32N59W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM
53W-74W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N72W TO
BEYOND 32N65W. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS BENEATH THIS
RIDGING FROM 31N37W ALONG 26N49W TO 29N58W WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BRIDGING THIS BOUNDARY TO 20N BETWEEN 43W-67W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIBBEAN
FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 30W-70W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N28W AND A 992 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 32N29W. THE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N FROM 19W-43W.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW N THEN E TO A TRIPLE
POINT NEAR 31N21W WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING S ALONG 25N20W TO
18N24W THEN DISSIPATING TO 16N28W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SURROUND THE LOWS IN A BAND WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE 30N33W ALONG
29N29W TO BEYOND 32N25W AND A BROAD AREA OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
BETWEEN THE LINES 26N23W-32N22W AND 25N15W-32N18W INCLUDING THE
CANARY ISLANDS. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS PENETRATED MUCH OF THE TROPICAL
ATLC KEEPING THE ITCZ CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM.

$$
WALLACE


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