[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 3N30W 5N40W 6N60W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-12W... FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 19W-27W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 31W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO 24N90W TO A
1016 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF S TEXAS NEAR 26N96W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W.  HIGH
PRESSURE IS RIDGING OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE N GULF.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 92W-95W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 80 T0 100 KT AND SW FLOW TRAVERSES THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS JET IS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE GULF AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN.  EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT A 1020 MB HIGH TO PUSH DOWN
TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  SURFACE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF WILL
BE FROM THE NORTH WITH FAIR WEATHER N OF 23N.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL COME ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE NW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...MAINLY E OF
80 W. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE
SEA ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-70W
DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 76W-88W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE SEA.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N AND
W OF 77W.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY DUE TO THE SURFACE
TRADEWINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N76W TO S FLORIDA NEAR
27N80W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE
FRONT.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N52W
29N63W.  A WARM FRONT CONTINUES W ALONG 29N70W 31N76W.  A 1021 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N60W.  ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH
IS FURTHER E NEAR 27N49W.  A 999 MB STORM LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N30W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 30N26W 24N27W
17N34W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS 200 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 20N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 20N AND W OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
10N BETWEEN 40W-50W.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF THE EQUATOR AND E OF 40W...EXCEPT N OF 27N BETWEEN 20W-35W DUE TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 30N27W.

$$
FORMOSA


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