[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED 9N14W 5N23W 3N33W 5N41W 4N51W 6N58W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 14W-16W AND FROM
4N-5N BETWEEN 18W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 70 T0 90 KT AND SW FLOW CROSSES
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE GULF. THIS JET IS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE GULF AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED OVER NW MEXICO AND ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 21N-23W
BETWEEN 98W-103W. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS TRAVERSES
THE GULF FROM 22N96W TO 24N91W. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WINDS...NEAR GALE FORCE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
GULF TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT STARTS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
PASSING THROUGH 31N60W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. IT BECOMES WARM
FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OCKEECHOBEE AND CONTINUES TO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 20N93W. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA/GULF AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE E
SECTION OF U.S. AND NE GULF. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 8N63W IN EASTERN VENEZUELA.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING TOWARD CUBA AND BEYOND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. NE SURFACE FLOW MAY BE HELPING TO FUEL THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-18N WEST OF 80W. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE 24 HOURS.
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY EAST
OF 80 W. THIS TRADE WINDS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PATCHES
OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. A BAND OF LOW/MID
CLOUDS EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ALL THE WAY E TO 19N46W.
THIS BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT AND WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REACHES 31N54W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE GULF AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FASTEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THIS JET
STREAM RANGE FROM 70 KT TO 100 KT NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 50W. A BROAD
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS THE RULE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 30W-40W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N33W
25N31W TO 17N34W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
ABSORBED THE REMNANT LOW OF EPSILON. THIS COLD FRONT GOES FROM A
999 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N29W...THE REMNANT OF EPSILON...TO
17N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 23N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 21W AND
27W. THE REST OF THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A LINE OF MOSTLY LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS.

$$
GR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net