[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N13W 8N20W 5N30W 4N40W 4N50W 5N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 9W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO
THE WESTERN GULF TO 90W. THIS AREA OF WIND EVENTUALLY MEETS UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...WHICH CURVES TOWARD FLORIDA AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ON TOP OF A STATIONARY
FRONT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTER NOW IS MOVING ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES...MAKING THE FLOW FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SOUTHWARD
TO BE FROM THE WEST FROM TEXAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO IS BEING PUSHED INTO MEXICO VIA AN
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 30N125W.
A COLD FRONT STARTS OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSING THROUGH 32N63W
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W. IT
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR
26N80W...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W TO A 1015 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 8N63W IN EASTERN VENEZUELA.
THE RADIUS OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH
CENTER IS ABOUT 420 NM. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
ORIGINATES IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING
TOWARD CUBA AND BEYOND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ONSHORE SURFACE
FLOW MAY BE HELPING TO FUEL THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 20N WEST
OF 80W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ALSO
ARE FOUND FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 15N BETWEEN 67W AND
70W...AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. OTHER LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PASSING SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN
60W AND 67W...MOVING WESTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REACHES 33N56W AND EXTENDS BEYOND
36N52W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH
32N63W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 78W AND
79W...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM IS PUSHING MOISTURE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR MEXICO TO
THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND THE REST OF THE GULF COAST STATES...BEYOND
FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE
FASTEST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THIS JET STREAM RANGE FROM 70 KT
TO 100 KT NORTH OF 27N/28N WEST OF 60W ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 10/1500 UTC. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS THE RULE NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W 26N29W TO 17N26W. THIS
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT WHICH ABSORBED THE REMNANT LOW
OF EPSILON. THIS COLD FRONT GOES FROM A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 32N29W...THE REMNANT OF EPSILON...TO 23N34W TO 15N43W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 26N56W TO 23N67W TO THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 26N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W.
THE REST OF THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A LINE OF MOSTLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

$$
MT


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