[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N30W 5N60W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 22W-25W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO 24N90W TO A
1016 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF S TEXAS NEAR 25N95W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N93W.  A NEW
SURGE OF COLD AIR WITH 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS IS MOVING OVER THE N
GULF...AND THUS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE FORMING N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST.  FURTHER N...HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING OVER THE EXTREME NW
GULF.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE NOTED N OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
91W-94W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 80
T0 100 KT AND SW FLOW TRAVERSES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS JET IS
PUSHING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE GULF
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  EXPECT THE SURFACE
LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.  EXPECT THE
NEW COLD FRONT TO PROCEED SE.  ALSO EXPECT A 1020 MB HIGH TO PUSH
DOWN TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  SURFACE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE GULF
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH WITH FAIR WEATHER N OF THE COLD FRONT.  UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WILL COME ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE NW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...MAINLY E OF 80 W. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-70W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT...AND
ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN
76W-88W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE SEA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 13N AND W OF 77W.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
MAINLY DUE TO THE SURFACE TRADEWINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N76W TO S FLORIDA
NEAR 27N80W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG
THE FRONT.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 30N50W 29N67W.  A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT CONTINUES W ALONG
31N72W 30N76W.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
29N45W.  A 997 MB STORM LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N30W.  A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 30N24W 26N23W 17N32W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
20N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF
20N AND W OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N
BETWEEN 40W-50W.  WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF
THE EQUATOR AND E OF 40W...EXCEPT N OF 27N BETWEEN 20W-35W DUE TO A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 30N27W.

$$
FORMOSA



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