[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 070832
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005

THE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING
TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS
STILL A HURRICANE. AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING...THE CONVECTION
HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE....KICKING THE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS BACK UP AGAIN. ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT HURRICANE
INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION OF
LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...
THE WEAKENING PROCESS HAS TO BEGIN VERY SOON SINCE STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SAME TROUGH ARE ALREADY HEADING TOWARD
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...I
HAVE NO OPTION BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING AT A FAST PACE.
NEVERTHERELESS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THIS
STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL EPSILON BECOMES
ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 3 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      07/0900Z 29.8N  36.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 28.7N  37.3W    55 KT
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 27.7N  38.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 26.5N  39.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 26.0N  40.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

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