[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE EPSILON IS CENTERED NEAR 29.8N 36.3W AT 07/0900 UTC OR
ABOUT 670 NM SW OF THE AZORES MOVING SW AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 987 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EPSILON IS
MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AGAIN THIS MORNING AND THE UPPER NORTHWEST
FLOW IS PARTIALLY ERODING THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION ALTHOUGH WEAKER...STILL SURROUNDS THE EYE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 7N25W 6N36W 9N50W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N44W SW TO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
8N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF 4N FROM 7W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 2N38W-9N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOSTLY CLEARED THE GULF THIS MORNING EXTENDING OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W WSW ALONG THE
N COAST OF CUBA TO NEAR 23N83W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG
22N91W S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER S MEXICO TO NEAR 17N94W. THE
S PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IS BEGINNING TO PULL BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED REMAINS OVER THE NE U.S. AND THE W ATLC. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE GULF N OF 23N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ESTABLISHED FROM TEXAS INTO THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
A 1029 MB HIGH ANCHORED OVER N ALABAMA. BROAD UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN
THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE GULF AND SE U.S. WITH UPPER WSW FLOW.
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 140 KT EXTENDS FROM THE E
PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO ENTERING THE GULF NEAR 27N98W TO ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W INTO THE W ATLC TO 30N76W. MODERATE EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS COVER THE GULF. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WARM/STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
KEEPING THE GULF UNDER UNSETTLED WEATHER WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N81W
COVERING THE AREA W OF 68W. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W
TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 13N63W. THIS ALL
HAS COMBINED TO GIVE THE CARIBBEAN DRY AIR WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND KEEPING THE AREA CLEAR AND SHOWER FREE AGAIN THIS
MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER PANAMA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE FOUND. MODERATE/STRONG
TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 80W THEN WEAKENING OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADEWIND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE TYPICAL TROPICAL MOISTURE GIVING THE
AREA THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN TO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W
CROSSING THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N83W. THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N IS RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD. OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-29N W OF THE FRONT TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND
E OF THE FRONT N OF LINE 26N70W TO BEYOND 32N56W. THE UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W NE TO BEYOND 32N50W. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...ENCOMPASSING HURRICANE
EPSILON...THROUGH 32N30W SW ALONG 22N46W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE AREA N OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 30N AND S OF 25N FROM
60W-80W INCLUDING MOST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE DRIEST AIR IS NE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 54W-63W IN THE E
CARIBBEAN. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING
THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC N OF 22N FROM 43W TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N49W...IS GIVING THE
AREA FAIR SKIES WITH ONLY BROKEN LOW LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS. THE E
ATLC IS MAINLY UNDER ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH A BROAD RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 8N26W N TO 30N23W. A SECOND JET WITH
WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT IS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N50W ALONG
25N27W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 23N17W.

$$
WALLACE



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