[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 28 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 4N20W 3N40W 3N50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 20W-23W...AND FROM
4N-6N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1022 MB HIGH IS OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W.  SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE
GULF OF MEXICO.  SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH 15 KT WINDS COVERS
THE ENTIRE GULF.  SMOKE IS NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR
17N90W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS N BEYOND MISSISSIPPI AT
32N90W.  A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE W
GULF W OF 90W MOVING E. THE E GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF
90W.  EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  A COLD FRONT WILL BE INLAND OVER NE TEXAS MOVING
E IN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W HISPANIOLA TO
JAMAICA ALONG 20N73W 18N79W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E PANAMA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 77W-79W.
SMOKE IS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER HONDURAS...THE
NW CARIBBEAN...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND S MEXICO FROM 13N-22N
BETWEEN 84W-100W.   IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA W OF 70W.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
IN 24 HOURS.  EXPECT CONTINUED MODERATE SURFACE TRADEWINDS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N65W 20N73W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 57W-64W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N31W TO
24N40W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF TROUGH.  1020
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N24W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
62W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-62W.  MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS N OF 20N E OF 50W. IN
THE TROPICS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 5N20W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-20N
E OF 40W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG 58W AND N OF 22N IN
24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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