[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI 29 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N30W 4N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 3N BETWEEN 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS BUILT EWD FROM MEXICO
AND NOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA CREATING TRANQUIL WEATHER.  AT
THE SURFACE...1021 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC IS CREATING MAINLY
ELY FLOW OVER FLORIDA WITH MODERATE RETURN FLOW OVER THE W
GULF.  EXPECT THIS OVERALL PATTERN TO REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST EARLY
SAT.  THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH LIMITED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST.  A LINE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP N OF 26N DURING THE DAY
SAT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND E GULF.  UNLIKE
THE PREVIOUS TWO FRONTS...THIS FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO MAKE AS
MUCH SWD PROGRESS STALLING OUT AROUND CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
GUATEMALA WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING ESE TO 15N75W.  MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER THE W ATLC CLIPS THE NE
CARIBBEAN WITH ASSOCIATED CONFLUENT FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
FINALLY BRINGING ABOUT SOME DRYING OVER HISPANIOLA.  AREA OF
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE ISLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS
ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE SWD AND AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY MAKING MUCH
WESTWARD PROGRESS BEYOND 65W AS THEY ENCOUNTER MAINLY DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND SAVE THE
EXTREME NE CARIBBEAN WHERE ENHANCED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE W ATLC TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT GRAZES THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MOVED OFF THE E COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES YESTERDAY NOW EXTENDS ALONG 32N63W TO
HISPANIOLA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS ON THE CONFLUENT/WEST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS CREATING DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND
GENERALLY CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS.  E OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM E OF A COLD FRONT FROM
32N61W TO THE MONA PASSAGE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
MARCH EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR EVEN
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN.  EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO BE N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W TONIGHT.
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS N
OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-60W. THE RIDGE IS UNDERCUT BY A BROAD/DIFFUSE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC JUST W OF
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N27W SWD ALONG 20N40W TO 10N60W.  FINALLY
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC....A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N20W
WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 8N35W.

$$
RHOME




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net