[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281817
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU 28 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N10W 2N20W 2N30W 3N40W 3N50W 5N54W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTER ARE WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF
5N23.5W...AND SOUTH OF 8N58W 7N55W 6N49W 5N40W TO THE EQUATOR.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THIS AREA IS
SHEARING AWAY SOME OF THE CLOUD TOPS.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ROLLS ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND EVENTUALLY SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW CROSSES FLORIDA
AND MOVES TOWARD THE BASE OF A TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 24N72W...ABOUT 150 NM EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N90W...SOUTHWESTWARD TO 23N94W AND TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W TO 24N80W...CROSSING WESTERN CUBA...THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 19N94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SMOKE IS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 12N TO 20N
BETWEEN 84W AND 100W...COVERING PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND
STATIONS FROM HONDURAS TO BELIZE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SHOW VISIBILITIES FROM 1.5 MILES TO 5 MILES. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A COLOMBIA-TO-EASTERN HONDURAS RIDGE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 60W. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SOMEWHAT MERGES WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS...NORTH OF 15N EAST
OF 70W...MOVING TOWARD THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 10N57W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM YESTERDAY IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY...PASSING
THROUGH 32N67W TO 27N70W AND 24N72W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N67W 29N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO 26N75W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
26N75W TO 24N80W...CROSSING WESTERN CUBA AND CONTINUING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EVENTUALLY. THE NEXT MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RUNS THROUGH 32N34W TO 23N37W TO 14N45W AND 10N57W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
20N TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...AND FROM 9N TO 20N BETWEEN
20N25W 9N40W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS THROUGH
32N31W 25N40W 20N50W AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 8N20W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS EAST OF THE BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 32N34W 10N57W
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 34N15W TO 30N20W 26N25W 18N34W AND 8N38W.

$$
MT


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