[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 222353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI 22 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N11W 4N17W 4N22W 2N33W TO THE EQUATOR AT
49W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W AND 15W AND BETWEEN 21W AND
23W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 3N27W.
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N84W. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS BROADENING AS IT APPROACHES THE LOUISIANA COASTAL
PLAINS...BUT BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED AHEAD
AND OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST...GENERALLY N OF 26N W OF 92W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY HAS FAIR WEATHER
ATTRIBUTED TO DRY AIR ALOFT SWINGING SE ACROSS THE AREA INTO
AN UPPER TROUGH E OF FLORIDA. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW COASTAL WATERS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT THE SURFACE A BROAD STATIONARY FRONT LIES NE TO SW ACROSS
EASTERN HISPANIOLA. ALOFT AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 78W
ACROSS CUBA TO NEAR 12N81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR CUBA AND NE
JAMAICA WITH THE ACTIVITY LIKELY TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THIS
UPPER SUPPORT IS ALSO ENHANCING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STREAMING NE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL TRAIN ECHO ACROSS THE SAME AREAS
OF LAND TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT THE LOW LEVELS...A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N62W...AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
32N50W TO 18N68W.  ALOFT...AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
31N72W AND IS SHIFTING NE WITH TIME. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS S ALONG TO 22N78W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
11N50W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE
WATERS 65W AND 30W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CLOUDS
AND CONVECTION WITHIN 420 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NE AND E ALONG
AN UPPER WIND MAXIMA...ROUGHLY WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE
24N63W 30N50W TO 32N35W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW SPLITS. THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH DIVES CYCLONICALLY SE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH
DESCRIBED NEXT.

THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG
30N15W TO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 22N19W AND CONTINUING S TO BASE AT
5N26W. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE UPPER LOW.
DRY AIR ALONG THE TROUGH IS SUPPRESSING THE ITCZ TO S OF 5N.

$$
NELSON


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