[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221811
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI 22 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W EQ40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 7W-12W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
17W-27W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-3N
BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N89W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND IS
APPROACHING THE W GULF.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE NW GULF AND THE TEXAS COASTAL REGIONS.  PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION HAS NOT OCCURRED YET.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO W OF 90W.  RIDGE AXIS IS ALONG 105W N
OF 10N.  PACIFIC MOISTURE IS W OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  A TROUGH IS
OVER THE E GULF...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 70W-90W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THIS
ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N72W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 73W-76W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 70W-72W...AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
65W-69W.  A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SUBTROPICAL W
ATLANTIC TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N67W 15N74W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS HISPANIOLA.  IN ADDITION RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS S OF PUERTO RICO FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 64W-69W MOVING N.  THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXISTS FOR HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N AND W OF 70W.  A VERY
LARGE RIDGE OVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SW.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO DRIFT E AND PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N65W.  A STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N50W 25N60W 15N74W.
A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N34W.  A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N20W 31N30W 32N45W AND CONTINUES
AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 32N50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W.  A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S TO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N80W.  A VERY
LARGE RIDGE IS N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-70W.  A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N19W WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING S TO 7N22W.  EXPECT THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO
SLOWLY DRIFT E IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA


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