[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221102
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI 22 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N5W 7N10W 3N20W 2N30W...FROM THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO THE
EQUATOR AT 50W...AND 2N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 6W AND 9W...FROM 1N TO
3N BETWEEN 16W AND 29W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 32W
AND 36W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...35N113W 26N110W 17N109W...IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF
90W. THIS UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THEN BLENDS WITH
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH COVERS THE REST
OF THE GULF WATERS STARTING AROUND 90W AND GOING EASTWARD...
AROUND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH...WHICH GOES EVENTUALLY TO A WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 30N73W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF 30N94W
21N89W IN THIS NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. SURFACE 1016 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. EXPECT
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND LIFT WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 770W TO THE NORTH OF THE PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND IN THE MONA
PASSAGE..AND EASTERN JAMAICA. PERIODS OF RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING FORECAST IN THE AREA FROM HISPANIOLA
AND TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THIS WEEKEND...
WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE METEOROLOGISTS FROM THE SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO OFFICE ARE ANNOUNCING THAT LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE
URGED TO TAKE HEED TO RECENT ADVERTISEMENTS OF THIS VERY WET
WEATHER EVENT...AND BE PREPARED FOR INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAINS AND
LARGE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...RIVER FLOODING...AND MUDSLIDES.
1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N62W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR AT LEAST MUCH
OF THE LAST WEEK...RUNS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N67W...TO THE
EXTREME EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
TO 17N70W. OTHER PRECIPITATION INCLUDES INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WEAKENING
AND SOME JUST DEVELOPING...IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA NORTH OF 9N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL EXISTS IN NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA...FROM THE AREA
OF SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA
COAST TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N78W. THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO EASILY IS SPILLING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AND WEST
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE ATLANTIC TO CARIBBEAN SEA DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH IS TAKING
SHAPE MORE AND MORE WITH TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
30N73W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST
WEEK...IS SET TO RECEIVE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
CALLING FOR LOTS OF WET WEATHER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOME FORM
OR ANOTHER STILL EXISTS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH 31N45W TO 29N50W
TO 25N56W TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N62W...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
20N67W...TO THE EXTREME EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 17N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W
AND 770W TO THE NORTH OF THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE..AND EASTERN
JAMAICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF
22N BETWEEN 38W AND 60W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH AMERICA
RIDGE. ONE SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 35N50W OVER BERMUDA TO 32N68W TO 31N80W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 30N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE ATLANTIC TO CARIBBEAN SEA FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.
IN GENERAL...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THROUGH 35N30W 32N40W 27N55W 24N65W 18N76W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N21W
TO 13N22W TO 8N23W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE CURVING NORTHWARD...FROM 16N TO 25N
EAST OF 20W...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net