[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220631
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI 22 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 13N1W 7N10W 4N20W 3N30W...FROM THE EQUATOR AT 40W...TO
THE EQUATOR AT 50W...AND 3N58W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
4W...FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 25W AND 28W...FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 2N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W. OTHER INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 17W
AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...36N118W 26N114W 18N111W...IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF
90W. THIS UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THEN BLENDS WITH
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH COVERS THE REST
OF THE GULF WATERS STARTING AROUND 90W AND GOING EASTWARD...
AROUND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH...WHICH GOES EVENTUALLY TO A WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 30N74W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF 30N95W
22N89W IN THIS NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N86W IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA/THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 29N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. EXPECT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TROUGH TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE TWO DAYS ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LIFT WILL BE THE
STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W TO THE NORTH OF THE PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND IN THE MONA
PASSAGE. PERIODS OF RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING
FORECAST IN THE AREA FROM HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE METEOROLOGISTS FROM THE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO OFFICE
ARE ANNOUNCING THAT LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO
TAKE HEED TO RECENT ADVERTISEMENTS OF THIS VERY WET WEATHER
EVENT...AND BE PREPARED FOR INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAINS AND LARGE
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...RIVER FLOODING...AND MUDSLIDES.
1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N62W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR AT LEAST MUCH
OF THE LAST WEEK...RUNS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N67W...TO THE
EXTREME EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
TO 18N70W. OTHER PRECIPITATION INCLUDES INDIVIDUAL CELLS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA JUST WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO AND IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM RADIUS OF 10N74W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL EXISTS IN NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
AMERICA...FROM THE AREA OF SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA COAST TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 10N78W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EASILY IS SPILLING INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC TO CARIBBEAN SEA DEEP
LAYER TROUGH WHICH IS TAKING SHAPE MORE AND MORE WITH TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
30N74W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...WHICH HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST
WEEK...IS SET TO RECEIVE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ENERGY DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
CALLING FOR LOTS OF WET WEATHER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOME FORM
OR ANOTHER STILL EXISTS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...WARM FRONT FROM 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 27N52W TO 30N48W AND 31N38W...STATIONARY FRONT FROM
27N52W LOW CENTER TO 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N62W...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
20N67W...TO THE EXTREME EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 18N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W
AND 70W...IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO THE NORTH OF THE PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 38W AND 60W...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH AMERICA RIDGE. ONE SURFACE RIDGE GOES
FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 33N53W TO 30N66W TO
30N78W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE ATLANTIC TO CARIBBEAN SEA
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. IN GENERAL... BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N41W 28N54W
20N73W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N22W TO 14N24W TO 8N26W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
CURVING NORTHWARD...FROM 12N TO 25N EAST OF 25W...ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT


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