[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230614
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT 23 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N11W 5N20W 1N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 34W...1S40W 1S45W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 8W AND
11W...WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N20W 3N28W...AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W. OTHER ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N EAST OF 37W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO
4N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DIGGING TROUGH
RUNS FROM 36N124W TO 27N130W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN YESTERDAY...NOW PASSES THROUGH 33N103W
TO 22N103W TO 16N107W...THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR OF MEXICO.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS DIVING RAPIDLY INTO
THE BASE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW RUNS THROUGH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TO EAST TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A 25 TO 30 NM
WIDE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...EVERYTHING MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W TO 24N83W TO
A 1013 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N88W...TO THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR 27N97W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 67W AND 68W...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...ABOUT
90 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS IS PART OF THE
RAIN ACTIVITY WHICH THE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO METEOROLOGISTS
HAVE BEEN FORECASTING TO DEVELOP AND REACH THEIR ISLAND...
CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N71W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
25N77W...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 15N80W IN THE WEST-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING OFF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE REST OF THE AREA...EAST OF
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N65W TO 20N70W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...TO 16N76W. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN IN MORE
OR LESS THIS SAME AREA FOR AT LEAST THE LAST WEEK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
31N71W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W...ACROSS CUBA AND
JAMAICA...TO 15N80W IN THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE
STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N39W TO 32N48W
TO 30N54W TO 27N60W TO 24N65W TO 20N70W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI...TO 16N76W. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN IN MORE OR
LESS THIS SAME AREA FOR AT LEAST THE LAST WEEK. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
WITHIN 150 TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N65W 24N64W 27N62W
30N56W 33N50W BEYOND 35N41W...AND FROM 24N TO 35N BETWEEN 20W
AND 40W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF
32N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W...EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE ATLANTIC-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA STATIONARY FRONT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N17W AT THE
MAURITANIA COAST JUST SOUTH OF MOROCCO TO 14N22W TO 8N29W TO
5N34W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH.

$$
MT


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