[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE 19 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N15W 3N24W 3N45W 2N52W.
CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF 4N
FROM 11W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45
NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W ACROSS THE AXIS
TO 6N14W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 23W-34W...AND S OF
5N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N TO THE EQUATOR E OF
20W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND S OF 5N ACROSS THE EQUATOR
FROM 28W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING S
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC N OF 20N FROM 60W-95W.
THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MAINLY E/SE WINDS OVER THE AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS S
MEXICO...THE GULF...INTO THE SE U.S. JUST E OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW SPINNING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES CONTINUES TO DRAG A TROUGH E ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE W GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FEATURES ARE ADVECTING TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO AND AND COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA
ACROSS W JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N85W.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FOR OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP UP TO 120 NM N OF THE AXIS. HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH DEEP IN SOUTH AMERICA
OVER FRENCH GUIANA IN THE TROPICS ALONG 53W TO PRODUCE SW UPPER
FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF SOUTH AMERICA THAT SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SW CARIBBEAN AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY THE ABC ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM OVER THE SE U.S. W
OF 60W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N71W
SSW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA NEAR 21N76W INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N49W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W. A COLD FRONT IS OVERTAKING THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND EXTENDS THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N60W...BECOMING
THE DOMINATE FEATURE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N31W AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 24N50W. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FROM OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC/SOUTH AMERICA
CONTINUES NE FROM 20N53W NE TO BEYOND 32N38W GENERATING
DIVERGENCE TO MAINTAIN THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS ABOVE. A NEAR STATIONARY CUT-OFF
MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 19N31W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SW TO 6N43W AND IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS S OF 20N E OF 33W TO THE AFRICAN COAST.

$$
WALLACE




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