[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE 19 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N17W ALONG THEN THE EQUATOR
FROM 28W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE
WITHIN 75 NM FROM 10W TO 13W WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
REMAINING INLAND. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 7.5W-9W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 15W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SE UNITED STATES EXTENDING S
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC N OF 20N FROM 60W-98W.
THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MAINLY E/SE WINDS OVER THE AREA.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS S
MEXICO...THE W GULF...INTO THE U.S. ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW SPINNING IN THE MID WESTERN
UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DRAG A TROUGH SW ACROSS TEXAS AND N
MEXICO INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO. THESE FEATURES ARE ADVECTING
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W
GULF N OF 23N W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA
ACROSS JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR
12N84W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS S INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FOR OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP UP TO 150 NM N OF THE
AXIS. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH DEEP IN
SOUTH AMERICA OVER FRENCH GUIANA IN THE TROPICS ALONG 53W TO
PRODUCE SW UPPER FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS
IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF SOUTH AMERICA THAT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SW CARIBBEAN
AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY THE ABC ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM OVER THE SE U.S. W
OF 60W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N72W
SSW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 23N79W INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N52W TO 24N61W THEN STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W.
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS OVERTAKING THE FIRST AND EXTENDS THROUGH
32N55W TO 28N60W...BECOMING THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE EASTERN
COLD/STATIONARY FRONT. A STRONG 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N32W AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 20N57W. ALTHOUGH THIS
REMAINS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC/SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES NE FROM 20N53W NE TO
BEYOND 32N42W GENERATING DIVERGENCE TO MAINTAIN THE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTS ABOVE. A
NEAR STATIONARY CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 21N31W
WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 6N45W AND IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE NE TO GENERATE SHOWERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 16W-32W
INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE AFRICAN COAST.

$$
WALLACE



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