[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE 19 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N0 10N10W 5N17W 4N25W 1N34W 1N43W
2S54W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF
LIBERIA FROM 3.5N-6.5N BETWEEN 11W-15W AND SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 10W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-41W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
ALONG THE BRAZILIAN COAST FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SFC HIGH PRES IS SLIDING E OF THE AREA OVER THE W ATLC
WATERS AND IS RELAXING THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH BANKED ALONG THE E
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES NEAR VERACRUZ. MOST OF COASTAL
MEXICO IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS
PRODUCING A FEW LOW CLOUDS FROM ABOUT TAMPICO NWD INTO S/CNTRL
TX. AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL STRETCHES FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA EWD
INTO THE NW GULF WITH WINDS OF 110-120 KT AND IS ADVECTING SOME
HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THINNING OUT AS IT
APPROACHES FLORIDA. A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
ACROSS CNTRL TX AND HAS BEEN TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE NW GULF WATERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SW TO THE E GULF AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT WILL BECOME
RATHER ISOLATED NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE NEXT FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST EARLY SAT WITH STRONG HIGH
PRES BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROF REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE W HALF
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
SW TO NICARAGUA...AND BROAD SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF IS
DRAWING A 550 NM WIDE SWATH OF MOISTURE NEWD OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN INTO THE CNTRL ATLC. THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC
STATIONARY FRONT JUST ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE MONA
PASSAGE/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N
BETWEEN 66W-70W. SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REPORTED ALMOST 4" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...AND AREAS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING SIMILAR
SCENARIOS TODAY AS SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE. A PIECE OF THE FRONT
HAS DETACHED FARTHER W AS A SFC TROF ALONG 11N83W 18N80W AND IS
ALSO INDUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY...SOME OF WHICH IS
MOVING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.

ATLANTIC...
SFC HIGH PRES HAS SLID EWD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND IS
CENTERED NEAR 32N72W WITH A CNTRL PRESSURE OF 1023 MB. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF IS ALSO LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC AS FAR
S AS 25N BETWEEN 60W-80W WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED NEAR 30N71W. A 550 NM WIDE SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS IS LOCATED E OF THE TROF OVER THE CNTRL ATLC WATERS WITH
A SFC COLD FRONT UNDERNEATH THIS LAYER ALONG 32N47W 25N57W THEN
AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE
LOCATED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE BOUNDARY...SOME OF WHICH ARE MOVING
SW TOWARDS PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FARTHER E...A
CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 NM WNW OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N33W AND CONTINUES TO DRAG UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE NEWD E OF 30W INTO W AFRICA. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF
SWINGS ALL THE WAY S TO ABOUT 3N...NEAR THE ITCZ...AND IS
HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES IS IN CONTROL N AND W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS WITH A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N28W.

$$
BERG


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