[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED 13 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N25W 3N27W 2N50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
18W-34W...AND BETWEEN 37W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N80W 22N89W 19N92W.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA.  W-NW 10-20 KT WINDS PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS LOCATED OVER N GEORGIA NEAR 35N85W.  A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PRODUCING SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC
UPPER FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A 70-80 KT 250 MB JET
STREAK WITH WESTERLY FLOW IS ALONG THE N GULF COAST.  A BAND OF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PUSHING S OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
EXPECT... SURFACE RIDGING AND NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
GULF IN 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 85W-88W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 81W-83W ALL DUE TO PREFRONTAL
ACTIVITY.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FAIR WEATHER
WITH MODERATE TRADES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 8N65W AND IS PRODUCING
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH SLIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING MOST OF THE UPPER
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA.  DRIER AIR IS SLIDING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN S OF THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.  EXPECT...THE FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO S FLORIDA ALONG 30N76W
26N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN
72W-75W.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 30N50W TO 25N54W.  SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC
N OF 15N AND E OF 45W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...PREVAILING
WESTERLY UPPER FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WATERS ON THE
UNDERSIDE OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINAS...AND IS ADVECTING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FLORIDA NE TO THE N ATLANTIC REGION. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALIGNED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FLOW ALONG
30N40W 23N45W.  FARTHER E...A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ALONG 35W N OF 24N BUT IS OVERSHADOWED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDING ACROSS MADEIRA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS...WITH AXIS ALONG
30N13W 20N25W. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.  UNIFORM WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS DOWN
INTO THE TROPICS TO 4N...WITH MORE VARIABLE FLOW EXTENDING DOWN
TO THE EQUATOR.

$$
FORMOSA


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