[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED 13 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 3N27W 2S42W. ISOLATED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
AFRICA...INCLUDING OVER GHANA...IVORY COAST...AND CNTRL GUINEA.
NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 5N BETWEEN 30W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE
WITHIN 30 NM OF A CONVERGENCE LINE ALONG 3N34W 4N40W 1N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER WRN TENNESSEE IS
SINKING SWD TOWARDS ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI AND IS PRODUCING
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A
70-80 KT 250 MB JET STREAK RIDING E ALONG THE N GULF COAST. THE
TROF IS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC WATERS ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO
23N88W...THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT CURLING INTO THE ERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE DUE TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES ONLY A 10-NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING
S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A FEW SHOWERS RIDING NE ACROSS
MIAMI/FT. LAUDERDALE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL FLOW. OTHER ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT OVER THE SE GULF TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. SKIES ARE
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM
CONUS. A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER N FLORIDA
TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING AS A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CNTRL VENEZUELA AND IS
PRODUCING PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
WITH SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING MOST OF
THE UPPER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND DRIER AIR IS SLIDING
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ASIDE FROM
THAT...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES COVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH NO AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTION. A POOL OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAY CAUSE A
FEW PASSING SHOWERS BUT THERE WILL BE NO LARGE-SCALE LIFT FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS.

ATLANTIC...
PREVAILING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS
ON THE UNDERSIDE OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINAS...AND IS
ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM FLORIDA NE TO THE N ATLC
REGION. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF IS ALIGNED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
FLOW ALONG 31N43W 23N47W WITH A SFC TROF REFLECTED ALONG 32N49W
26N54W 23N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 30 NM OF THIS
BOUNDARY N OF 20N. FARTHER E...HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
AREA E OF 45W AS NELY SFC FLOW RUNS DOWN THE COAST OF AFRICA. A
NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 37W N OF 24N BUT IS
OVERSHADOWED BY A LARGE UPPER TROF SLIDING ACROSS MADEIRA AND
THE CANARY ISLANDS...WITH AXIS ALONG 32N14W 24N30W. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROF FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 13W-32W. UNIFORM WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS
DOWN INTO THE TROPICS TO 4N...WITH MORE VARIABLE FLOW EXTENDING
DOWN TO THE EQUATOR.

$$
BERG


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