[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU 14 APR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N22W 2N35W 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N E OF 6W TO
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE
AXIS W OF 21W TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
6N20W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 7N12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL MEXICO INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE W GULF
W OF 93W. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NW SOUTH CAROLINA
CONTINUES TO DRIFT S AND IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW OVER
THE GULF AND W ATLC FROM 73W-93W AND S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.
JET STREAM WITH WINDS TO 110 KT IS RIDING E OVER TEXAS THEN OVER
THE E GULF AND FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR
32N72W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
25N81W TO 22N88W THEN STATIONARY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OVER THE N GULF AS CONTINENTAL AIR FILTERS
FILTERS DOWN N OF 27N. FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED OVER
THE FAR SE STATES DUE TO A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N75W.

CARIBBEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE S GULF. DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA IS PRODUCING PREDOMINANTLY
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING
MOST OF THE UPPER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR SLIDING ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN FROM ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE POOL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN IS A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN E
CUBA AND JAMAICA.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEAR HISPANIOLA
NNE TO BEYOND 32N63W AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE E GULF AND W
ATLC. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FLOW ALONG
32N41W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N44W TO A BASE NEAR 18N45W
AND CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 38W-53W. ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT IS N
OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC IS N OF 19N
E OF 35W WITH A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SITUATED BETWEEN THIS
TROUGH AND THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 65W WITH A
WEAKNESS NEAR 50W...MOSTLY N OF THE REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE


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